Efficient forest carbon sequestration programs could play a pivotal role in mitigating global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, potentially accounting for approximately a quarter of the desired CO2 reduction this century. This significant contribution primarily hinges on three strategies: reducing deforestation (42%), improving forest management (31%), and promoting afforestation (27%), with tropical regions being the epicenter of sequestration activities, contributing to about 70% of the overall carbon capture.
A critical challenge faced by current sequestration initiatives is the requirement for each project to demonstrate ‘additionality’, meaning that the carbon sequestration would not have occurred without the project. This concept, however, is complex, as distinguishing between marginal and inherently carbon-storing hectares is not straightforward. A practical solution could be the establishment of a country-specific baseline carbon level for forests. This approach would entail imposing fees for any reductions below the baseline and providing subsidies for storage exceeding this threshold. Setting the baseline equal to the current carbon levels could incentivize additional carbon storage effectively.
The scaling-up of smaller forest carbon sequestration projects poses its own set of challenges, notably limited technical capacity and the risk of leakage (where reductions in one area lead to increases elsewhere). National programs could offer a more feasible solution, likely being easier to administer and potentially more effective in addressing these issues.